By Linnea Lueken and H. Sterling Burnett
The Independent published a story reporting on how British television presenter and gardening journalist Alan Titchmarsh urged UK citizens to stop eating avocados because of their alleged climate impact. This is nonsense. As islands, the United Kingdom imports a lot of their food, and, as a result, attempts to limit a carbon footprint are a waste of time and perhaps detrimental to nutrition. Certainly, the carbon footprint of avocado imports is miniscule relative to the UK’s and the globe’s total output. To pile more alarmism on, The Independent also suggests that avocado production is likely to decline due to climate change. This is refuted by available data.
The Independent’s post, “Why Alan Titchmarsh is urging Britons to eat Weetabix,” contextualizes Alan Titchmarsh’s claims that avocado consumption is bad for the environment. Titchmarsh, a regionally famous television personality, goes further advising that people should eat “traditional breakfast staples like Cornflakes, Weetabix, and Shreddies,” instead. According to The Independent Titchmarsh links deforestation to avocado production, and points to the carbon footprint associated with shipping and handling for avocados to reach the UK as contributing to dangerous climate change.
Part of the reasoning behind the grain-based cereal suggestion is that these are more often locally produced, or are at least produced a shorter distance away, as opposed to tropical avocados. But the “food miles” theory has lately been debunked, as discussed in the Climate Realism post “Thanks, WBUR, For Explaining “Eating Local” Has No Impact on Climate Change,” where recent data showed that locally farmed foods almost always had higher carbon footprints than food grown efficiently elsewhere. This might not hold true for a comparison between local mass-produced wheat versus distantly mass-produced avocados, but the formula is not as simple as “distance equals higher footprint.”
Importantly, wheat and avocados have different nutritional profiles so eating processed wheat doesn’t provide the same nutritional benefits as eating avocados and vice-versa.
Chasing carbon footprints is a waste of time anyway. Individual efforts do nothing at all to impact atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. Even if the UK ceased imports of all avocados, the amount of carbon dioxide entering the atmosphere from shipping in general would not change. Most goods are shipped combined with other goods by sea and air freight, so picking on avocados alone is pointless on the carbon footprint front.
With regards to deforestation, if a UK consumer or importer is worried, a simple solution would be to select growers that do not practice mass deforestation to plant avocado trees. More importantly, they could advocate that the country stop demanding and importing palm oil for use as a “sustainable” fuel source and cooking oil, since copious research indicates it is responsible for widespread deforestation in some of the most biologically diverse and intact tropical forests on earth. Ending palm oil deforestation would do far more to benefit the environment than foregoing the occasional avocado toast with breakfast.
The Independent also suggests that climate change itself is also impacting “the largest avocado-producing countries.” They cite a study which predicts that Mexico could see avocado growing regions reduced by 31 percent by 2050 even if global warming is stopped. Despite global average temperatures already increasing to 1.5°C since pre-industrial times, data from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) indicate that avocado production has skyrocketed in Mexico. (See graph below)
Since just 1990:
- Production increased 333 percent;
- Yields increased 32 percent;
- The most recent world record production was set in 2023.
The United Kingdom gets most of their avocados from Peru and Chile, according to The Independent. Luckily, as Climate Realism has already covered concerning Peruvian climate change, a recent regional drought in some parts of the country are highly localized and natural, having nothing to do with global warming. In fact, some local droughts are likely due to the very deforestation that Titchmarsh is concerned about. As importantly, for a clear understanding of the impact of climate change for avocado production and potential supply issues in the UK, during the recent period of slight warming, avocado production in both countries has boomed, increasing more than 348 percent in Chile between 1990 and 2023 and by more than 1017 percent in Peru. (see the graph below)
All in all, The Independent’s and Titchmarsh’s concerns are not well founded, as even a cursory look at available avocado data show. UK residents can happily enjoy their guacamole and avocado toast without worrying that they are contributing to climate change.
