A recent article at Al Jazeera, titled “Wildfire risks as climate change fuels extreme heatwave in Southern Europe,” claims that recent heatwaves in parts of southern Europe are due to climate change, which the publication says is making them more intense, and will inevitably cause more deaths. This is false. Recent heatwaves are not outside of historic norms, and though Al Jazeera correctly identifies the urban heat island effect as a major contributor, they downplay its role in recent trends and the evidence concerning temperature related deaths.
Al Jazeera reports that authorities across several southern European countries have issued heat warnings and fire warnings, “as Southern Europe experiences the summer’s first severe heatwave and as experts link the rising frequency and intensity of soaring temperatures to climate change.”
Countries impacted are: Spain; Portugal, where Al Jazeera says Lisbon is “expected” to see temperatures around 107°F; the Italian island of Sicily, which saw some wildfires over the weekend; and Greece.
Much of the article presents a reasonable discussion of the dangers heatwaves can pose, like increases in the likelihood of wildfire outbreaks and heat stroke. Unfortunately, the author of the post proceeds to make unfounded claims regarding the cause of the summer heat, like that “extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common across Europe’s southern region due to global warming.”
This is false; extreme weather is not becoming more severe or frequent. For example, Lisbon’s predicted high is not unprecedented, in part because the city is prone to being impacted by what is called the “Saharan air layer.” This is the same phenomenon that carries dust all the way across the Atlantic, as well as hot dry air with boosts temperatures. In 2018, Lisbon recorded a high of 111°F, and the all time high for Portugal was 117°F in 2003.
Even these temperature records do need to be taken with a grain of salt, however, because it is not clear where they were recorded, and as Al Jazeera admits, the urban heat island effect can bump temperatures upwards, both daytime and nighttime highs but especially nighttime lows. Satellite data can avoid some of the issues with ground sensors, and record much more modest warming trends than the ground sensors do.
Al Jazeera references a Lancet study they say “predicted that heat-related deaths could more than quadruple by mid-century under current climate policies,” even while admitting that more people die from cold than heat, and that the “the study stressed that rising temperatures will offset the benefits of milder winters, leading to a significant net increase in heat-related mortality.”
These claims together do not make sense. The Lancet study, referenced by Climate Realism in posts here, here, and here, showed that deaths due to cold outnumber heat related deaths by ten to one. The study also found that heat related deaths have increased 0.21 percent since the year 2000, but that the deaths due to cold have declined by more than double that, 0.51 percent. Why Al Jazeera would assume cold deaths would not continue to decline at a higher rate is unsupported by the trends and data. The only thing we know for certain is that the number of temperature related deaths have declined by tens of thousands of victims over the course of the study period. (See figure below)
Al Jazeera added a bunch of unnecessary climate change fearmongering to a post that otherwise reasonably reported on the impact of a recent heatwave in southern Europe. There was no reason for it, other than to try to scare readers into accepting the alarmist narrative that climate change is causing worsening summer weather and a rise in deaths. Even the article’s redeeming points, the truth that the urban heat island effect has a significant impact on temperature records and health and that cold related deaths are declining, were minimized or glossed over to promote unsupported alarming claims about a dramatic regional rise in heatwaves and sharp increases in heat related deaths.
Propaganda like that peddled by Al Jazeera in this article may serve as good click-bait, but misinforms anyone who reads the piece.
