A recent article by the National Review (NR), “First-of-Its-Kind Study Finds Sea Level Rise Has Not Accelerated Because of Climate Change,” reports on a paper which looked primarily at real world data rather than modeling and found no acceleration in sea level rise. This tracks with other research showing the same, and provides counter-evidence which makes satellite-measured acceleration look more like an artefact of changed measurement devices rather than a genuine trend.
The NR article is paywalled, but goes into detail about a new peer-reviewed Dutch study published in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. NR reports that the study “was conducted as an analysis of more than 200 tide-gauge stations worldwide, cuts against the long-standing belief among climate scientists that climate change is leading to rapidly accelerating sea level rise.”
The study found that the average rate of sea level rise in 2020 was just 15 centimeters per century. The authors, Hessel Voortman and Rob de Vos, did a literature review in advance of their study and were surprised to find that no one else had done one like it. Voortman explained in a press release reported in NR that sea levels have fluctuated over time, and that if you start your trend in the early 90s, there is a supposed acceleration, but drawing back in time reveals that it is likely only temporary. He explained that while “[b]oth measurements and projections are important sources of information,” one needs to be careful in understanding the difference between the two. Voortman cautions colleagues that they should not be overly reliant on model projections.
In the abstract of the paper itself, “A Global Perspective on Local Sea Level Changes,” the authors explain:
[A]pproximately 95% of the suitable locations show no statistically significant acceleration of the rate of sea level rise. The investigation suggests that local, non-climatic phenomena are a plausible cause of the accelerated sea level rise observed at the remaining 5% of the suitable locations. On average, the rate of rise projected by the IPCC is biased upward with approximately 2 mm per year in comparison with the observed rate.
This is remarkably consistent with what Climate at a Glance: Sea Level Rise has contended. The acceleration of the rate of sea level rise asserted by the IPCC and other climate alarmist groups, does not appear in the tide gauge readings. The actual rate of rise is much lower, a rate giving the world time to easily adjust to or mitigate it, as coastal cities have traditionally done.
Time and again at Climate Realism, we have debunked local and national news outlets claiming that accelerating, human-driven climate change driven sea level rise will imminently swamp popular cities and tourist destinations. As the new study says, most if not all of the tide gauges that show accelerating sea level rise are sited where severe land subsidence is occurring. That can be due in part to human activity, aquifer withdrawals for instance, but it can also be a natural geologic phenomenon.
This is the kind of news that mainstream audiences don’t often hear. The National Review does a great service by reporting the facts disclosed in this new study, helping to inform readers rather than misinform them with scare stories the way other mainstream outlets do. Data does not show that sea level rise is accelerating, and it is certainly not rising at an alarming rate.
