Data Falsifies ABC News’ Claim that 2023 Displayed Dangerous Heat Trends

A recent article at ABC News titled, “2023 was the year of record heat temperatures,” makes a slew of claims about global warming in 2023, including that extreme heat is becoming more common and more disastrous. These claims are misleading. While the planet has modestly warmed since the end of the Little Ice Age, and high temperatures were recorded this year in various locations, there is no evidence that recent temperature trends constitute an emergency or signify global change. New local records for both heat and cold are set almost every year. Many of the examples cited by ABC News are misattributed to greenhouse gas emissions, as opposed to other human causes and a variety of natural influences that climate scientists acknowledge contributed to this year’s warmth.

A team of four contributors write that “record-eclipsing temperatures will no longer be an anomaly if greenhouse gas emissions that fuel global warming continue at the current pace,” and that “hotter-than-normal temperatures could soon become the norm if fossil fuel extraction does not significantly decrease before 2030.”

ABC also mentions the goal of keeping warming to no more than 1.5 °C – but this value is arbitrary, as admitted by climate scientists and discussed very recently at Climate Realism in “Reason is Right, There is No ‘Climate Cliff’.” ABC neglects to mention that this threshold is not a scientifically established one, but rather a political talking point.

ABC spends the bulk of the article citing the “most consequential” stories about extreme heat this year, including two sections that deal with “warmest month on record” claims and “record stretches of triple-digit temperatures” describing heat records in El Paso, Phoenix, Death Valley National Park, and one four day stretch of allegedly “hottest day ever recorded” worldwide.

While it is true that average temperatures are rising (unevenly), and that the American southern states had some above-average temperatures this year, ABC’s claims are misleading and problematic.

It is notable that most of the temperature records that were broken were exceeded by a tenth of a degree or less, which is hardly alarming. In addition, the claims about record temperatures in cities in the United States are misleading since they are based on measurements from urban temperature stations, which Climate Realism and The Heartland Institute have repeatedly shown are woefully biased by the Urban Heat Island effect. For example, Phoenix, Arizona’s “record-breaking heatwave,” was clearly the result of the urban heat island effect is at work. Climate Realism discussed this fact in “OilPrice.com Contributor Misses the UHI Influence on Phoenix Warming Trend,” and “Record Phoenix Warmth Not Reflected in Surrounding Weather Station Data.” The summer record high lows at night came from a single station located at major airport. It is widely recognized by researchers that there can be a massive temperature difference between desert cities like Phoenix and the surrounding rural areas at night– up to 20 degrees.

Despite the many summertime heat records, the summer of 2023 was only the 13^th warmest summer on record since measurements began in 1895. Climate Realism has likewise repeatedly refuted claims about particular days, months or the whole summer being the hottest ever here, here, and here, for example.

Another section for ABC News’ story, “extraordinary marine temperatures,” correctly states that Atlantic Ocean temperatures were above-average. Unfortunately, rather than soberly discussing the larger trend and possible causes, ABC News cites absurd claim that ocean temperatures off the Florida coast were 101 degrees as proof of the danger. This is particularly egregious fearmongering, as this temperature was recorded by a single buoy located partially inland in the Everglades. No other device recorded this high of a temperature. As discussed at Climate Realism, the buoy was in very shallow water, and may have even been beached at the time of the recorded temperature. Publicly available data from the buoy shows that the record temperature was set at low tide during the hottest part of the day. It is also not the hottest temperature recorded by this buoy, which was in 2017 at 102°F.

ABC claimed Florida’s ocean temperatures caused a mass bleaching event, and worked as “super fuel for hurricanes.” Neither of these claims is accurate. Some coral did bleach this summer, but it is unclear that temperatures were the sole or even primary cause. In addition, coral bleaching is not the same thing as coral death. Most corals are evolved to prefer warmer equatorial waters. The worst disaster for corals and other marine life in the past has been when the Florida Keys suffered freezing cold temperatures. Even after the 2010 die-offs, the reefs bounced back, and there is no reason for believing this won’t be the case this year as well. More importantly, there is no reason to believe that modest warming will cause permanent disappearance of corals in Florida.

Similarly, while warmer waters can fuel strong hurricanes, it’s more complicated than that. Climate Realism has shown the actual data on hurricanes amid global warming dozens of times, there has been no increase in strong cyclones. Also, contrary to the impression left by the ABC News story, there were no record setting hurricanes in Florida this year.

In the section titled “Record melting at the poles” ABC references the usual fearmongering about Antarctica, particularly the so-called “doomsday glacier.” Antarctica is a poor case study for climate alarm, as the continent’s ice refuses to behave the way alarmists claim it should. Antarctica has not displayed any sign of the warming seen other places on the planet, with the exception of some ocean temperatures that have led to melting in the Peninsula region. However, overall there has been an expansion of ice in Antarctica, as discussed in “Thanks, Frontline News, For Debunking Alarming Claims Made About Antarctica’s Temperature and Ice Trends.” In the areas that have seen melting, the total ice loss per year is around 0.0003 percent of the total ice mass, and the melt is being driven by subsurface geothermal activity and shifting ocean currents.

ABC also makes alarming claims about Arctic warming, claiming that sea ice and snow extent are well below the long-term average. While it’s true that the Arctic has seen sea ice mass loss over time, recent years have seen a decline in the rate of loss, not acceleration.

Most telling is that ABC News makes no mention whatsoever of some of the natural factors that gave 2023’s heat a boost.

First, in January 2022, the largest underwater volcano eruption on record blasted 40 trillion gallons of water vapor all the way into the stratosphere – water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas. Early in 2023, scientists warned that the effects of the eruption would have a significant impact on global average temperatures.

Also, as 2023 got underway, the Pacific ocean began shifting to the warmer-phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, which is now in full swing and is expected to remain into late spring 2024. This natural event causes warmer temperatures on land and sea, and causes average global temperatures to rise, as well as delivering warmer, wetter weather to parts of North and Central America. ABC doesn’t mention the significant impact of ENSO on this fall and winter’s weather once.

It’s bad enough that ABC News falsely hypes a variety of hot weather news to claim that the Earth’s temperature is spiraling ever upward, out of control. It is particularly egregious for a supposedly honest news agency to place exclusive blame on fossil fuel “extraction” (a strange word choice, since it is the use not the extraction of fossil fuels that releases the majority of human carbon dioxide emissions) for this year’s warmth, while completely ignoring significant natural factors that have undoubtedly played a role in 2023’s warm year. ABC should retract and correct many of the false claims made in this post, if only to preserve the façade of integrity in its reporting the news.